Obama Optimism

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE: Clinton supporters will vote for Obama in November

I just read a two weeks old but still uplifting post over at Ink, in which the author makes the case that Obama is on the upswing again after flirting with 'pastor disaster.' It's surely an opinion shared by many, but I still found it uplifting because, for all his positive attributes, for a pessimistic political progressive like myself Obama's campaign has that air of fragility about it that one comes to expect from all things hopeful. It is not that he or his message are fragile per se, but that the world is a mean place and messages of hope tend to get chewed up and spit out by an unforgiving political machine, especially when they have to hold their own for months on end before being validated, as in the case of a long election year. But Ink's post got me thinking about another reason for Obama optimism, and it is the precise opposite message that we are presently hearing from the media corps. At first I believed their gloomy prediction too, particularly the first rumblings of it that came to my ears: a convincing commentary by NPR's Ted Koppel right after Clinton's still-hanging-on-by-the-fingernails_a.k.a._"comeback" victories in OH and TX on March 4. And the message only got more convincing the more that others repeated it: the Democrats are being riven by infighting and bitterness, we are creating long-lasting internal animosities, the party needs to choose a candidate now so they can begin duking it out with McCain instead of with one another. Particularly troublesome are the poll results we repeatedly hear that x% of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, and y% of Obama voters say the same about Clinton. But . . . I am no longer buying it.

I have been mulling this over and I've come to the conclusion that it is nonsense. A staunch supporter of a liberal democrat would vote for a white, male, pro-war Republican over a different liberal democrat, just because their liberal democrat of choice did not get the nomination? Nonsense. This is a classic case of one of the flaws of polls -- people answer a question about the future ("Who would you vote for in November?") based on their feelings in the present ("If Hillary loses the nomination my world will end"). [See the similarity here to one of Daniel Gilbert's theses, about our inability to predict how we will actually feel when a future event comes to pass, in his for the most part excellent book Stumbling on Happiness. The truth is that, whoever gets the nomination, their rival's supporters will be pissed off for a few days, maybe a few weeks, but then that will fade and they will come to their senses and continue to vote Democrat in the general election. If you want proof, just look across the aisle: I recall listening to conservative radio talk shows a few months ago when the Republican nomination was still an open question and being just amazed at how vicious was their hate for McCain. We all heard Ann Coulter's silly comments about campaigning for Hillary if it came to McCain versus her. And now where do all those talk show hosts stand? They may not like McCain, but they sure as hell aren't talking trash about him anymore. And they will all vote for him in November, because who else are they going to vote for? Ralph Nader?

I like the way one friend of mine put it -- if you are a Hillary supporter and you truly would vote for McCain over Obama, the reason could only be either (a) racism or (b) a complete misunderstanding of your own stated political philosophy. There may be a small segment of either camp that would actually remain bitter enough after their candidate loses to vote for McCain, but they will be a tiny percentage. And I believe this is particularly the case for Clinton supporters. Many Obama supporters genuinely dislike Clinton and the Clinton Machine, for various reasons whether justified or not, and perhaps they would vote for McCain -- or simply not vote at all -- out of this genuine dislike. But most Clinton supporters can say nothing worse about Obama than that he's not as "experienced" or "qualified" as their gal. Sorry, despite the vigor of their support for Clinton, that is not a feeling strong enough to make them switch parties in November.

Here's how I call it -- Obama gets the eventual nod; Clinton supporters bitch, moan, and seethe for a little while; then the dust settles and people come to their senses. Obama takes McCain handily. I remain at heart a political pessimist (how could you not be after the last 8 years?), but at present I am riding a tide of optimism: Obama Optimism.